The NBA Finals Have a Chance to Change Everything

For the seventh straight season, we are guaranteed to have a non-repeating champion. Better yet, for the first time since 2006, we are entering an NBA Finals where we are guaranteed to crown a first-time NBA champion.

The Oklahoma City Thunder, the 68-win victors of the Western Conference, are entering their first Finals since 2012, a team led by possibly familiar faces Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook (oh, hey there James Harden). Widely regarded as the best team throughout the majority of the regular season, yet for some reason still underestimated, the team is built on a defensive juggernaut that involves multifaceted defensive play from guards and bigs alike. This pressurized defensive intensity makes way for a team that has built its offensive game off of thriving in transition and making the opponent work too hard to be fully involved in any set offensive play that is to come. Of course, spearheaded by league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the offense can make easy work of any and all comers when the offense is being run correctly.

This Thunder team has been nothing short of historic and is looking to join elite company to cap off this postseason. The Thunder are only four games away from an NBA championship, and those four wins would set the bar at 84 total wins in one season, including playoffs. Those four wins would make the Thunder the second team to ever cross that win total. All other 68-win champions came during a time when the first round was a best-of-five series, only allowing for a maximum of 83 wins (the only team that has crossed this benchmark was the 2015-2016 Golden State Warriors with 88 total wins, but fell short to the Cavaliers in the Finals that season. Perhaps the most impressive part of this feat is that this Thunder team has an argument to be ahead of schedule. Franchise cornerstone Gilgeous-Alexander is the oldest member of this core at just 26. All-NBA member Jalen Williams and lanky big Chet Holmgren are 24 and 23, respectively, and the cast surrounding the three combine as a unit as a group of savvy vets who know their way around a basketball court, and some of them have championship experience already under their belts. The Thunder will have some extraordinarily tough financial decisions in the upcoming years, but right now is not the time to worry about them. This team has a chance to secure their place as possibly the first true multi-time champion core of this decade, but there is one more hurdle to overcome til a taste at history.

Said hurdle comes in the shape of a lanky point guard and a red-hot ring of fire disguised as a basketball team titled the Indiana Pacers. The 50-win Pacers enter just their second Finals in franchise history and their first in 25 years. Players by the names of Reggie Miller and Mark Jackson donned the backs of Pacer jerseys in those times, and a quarter-century later, the former of the two gleefully watched along as the Pacers stomped an outclassed Knicks team in the conference finals just as those aforementioned Pacers did so all those years ago. New York's style of isolation-heavy and slow-motion offense is what cost them potential extra opportunities to match a Pacers team whose blend of transition and constant movement provided for more possessions and therefore more points to build leads, which they maintained throughout the majority of the series. While the Pacers' two previous opponents in the Bucks and Cavaliers fell victim to the same trap (granted, not as bad), the Knicks played so heavily into the game that Indiana wanted to play that it made the 6-game series feel far more lopsided than it was. It's a team built on basketball, not stars, something incredibly refreshing based on the majority of basketball played since the turn of the millennium.

The Pacers, in contrast to the Thunder, are aiming to become tied for the second-lowest seed to ever claim an NBA championship. They would match the 1969 Celtics as the only fourth seeds to ever win the championship, and would be only trailing the 94-95 Houston Rockets, who claimed the championship as a sixth seed. It's a stake that can seem impossible on the surface, with the only homecourt advantage being the first round (barring any potential 1-3 seed upests in the opening rounds). The Pacers opened with a 5-game series win against the Bucks, a 5-game series win against the first-seeded Cavaliers, and recently completed a 6-game series win against the third-seeded Knicks. The Pacers have only fallen four times since the turn of the playoffs, with only two losses being split evenly between road and home matchups. It's an unlikely run that shouldn't be too surprising if you have kept up with the Pacers since the turn of the calendar year. Granted, quite the shock if you were there for the team's 10-15 record throughout the first 25 games of the season. Stars Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam seemed to have unlocked an extra gear since the turn of the year, and the role players for Indiana have opened up Pandora's box for uber-meaningful minutes in big spots when the Pacers need them most. They're not just four games away from the ultimate goal, but a team just as young and just as competitive waiting for them on the other side, and the road ahead appears far more daunting than what the Pacers have encountered so far.

An Unstoppable Force vs an Immovable (and unstoppable) Object

There's rightfully no secret that the Thunder are favorites to walk away with the crown this season. They are currently favored at -750 odds to defeat the Pacers, with 4-1 being the shortest series odds at +250 according to FanDuel Sportsbook. With that being said, this is the third consecutive series the Pacers have entered as the underdogs according to the books. The only series where the Pacers were favorites was the opening round against Milwaukee, where the team entered as -210 favorites to take the series. The Cavaliers had the longest odds against the Pacers this postseason, as they entered the Eastern Conference Semis as -500 favorites vs the Pacers with a daunting homecourt advantage looming over the series' head. Last round, in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Knicks entered as -140 favorites, making this three consecutive series where the Pacers have entered as underdogs according to the numbers. Despite this, there has been talk all playoffs and the latter half of the regular season that this Pacers team is specially built to perform the upsets that have occurred in this playoffs. The majority of credible talking heads (save a few) have had a close eye on the Pacers, as the team has had the fourth-best record since the turn of the new year at 34-14.

Led by Haliburton, the offense uses constant movement and unorthodox angles to create the space it needs for the fast pace to flow. The team took a step back in terms of offensive pace compared to its 2024 Conference Finals appearance, and approaches the offense with more coordinated touches towards slightly more ball-dominant Siakam, who provides a cushion for scoring if the ball isn't flowing as it tends to for this Pacers roster. Expect the ball to go towards Siakam more often in this series, as the Thunder's breakneck defensive pace will provide an unseen challenge for this Pacers roster so far. The shooting is still there for this offense, as despite a relatively poor shooting performance for Haliburton in the previous series, he's an elite isolation shooter surrounded by excellent catch-and-shoot options with players like Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard. Players like Nembhard also get their hands dirty like Siakam in the post, as he's developed an elite stop-and-pop 15-footer just outside the free-throw line. On paper, this seems like it would complement the Pacers' incredible depth, but the opponent on the other side seems to run just as many guys on the floor and can do so just as well, if not better than the Pacers. The Pacers faced a similar foe when they faced the Cavaliers, but the various injuries suffered by the Cavaliers required far more input from a shorter rotation, allowing the depth of the Pacers to thrive as well as it does.

The team has also improved significantly on the defensive side of the ball compared to the previous few seasons, and especially in transition. The Pacers enter as the sole owner of the number one spot for transition defense in the playoffs so far, allowing just .96 points per possession and a 42.1% opponent field goal percentage, which are both first throughout the playoffs. They're ranked eighth in defensive rating since the all-star break, but have fallen to the middle of the pack in the playoffs. While the stats don't lie, you must also take into account the lack of sample size compared to other teams when it comes to the transition defensive statistics for the Pacers, as the team ranks near the top of the league in limiting offensive turnovers, leading to fewer opponent fastbreak opportunities.

The Thunder share a host of similarities with this Pacers squad and enter the Finals as almost a more polished product of what the Pacers do. Head coach Mark Daigneault has built this team around suffocation on both ends of the court, as their offense depends on constant movement around league MVP Gilgeous-Alexander and a defense with few to no holes. The team thrives in transition, but does its true damage in Shai's offensive isolation, where the guard is a maestro at creating contact and, more importantly, finishing through said contact. They have a second option in forward Jalen Williams, who is inconsistent at times but should be looked at as a reliable second creator when Shai is needing a breather from the ball. Bigs Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren are a unique pair that combines heavy screen and roll offense from Hartenstein with an unorthodox style of skill and shooting from the lanky Holmgren. Hartenstein was a specific target for OKC, as it seemed last year the team was one powerful veteran big-man presence away from putting it all together on the court. The team's previously mentioned depth comes in mightily, especially against teams like the Pacers, as players like Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace can be relied upon to enter the game from the bench and provide scorching hot deep shooting when set up correctly.

The true power of this Thunder roster comes from its presence on the defensive end. While the interior is patrolled by one of the league's top shot blockers in Holmgren, the true damage is done in the physicality and passing lane observations of the Thunder's deep backcourt play. Starters Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander are incredibly viable on-ball options and can hold their own against quick ball movement as well. True damage is done when the bench unit enters, and physicality can be ramped up as the depth of the roster allows for more flexibility when it comes to fouls on top defensive guards. Pioneered by Alex Caruso, the physicality of this Thunder bench is suffocating for any opponent and can disrupt larger opponents with what they were able to get away with. In all honesty, I had quite the problem with the way Caruso defended Nikola Jokic in the final game of the Western Conference Semis series against the Nuggets, where you could say he should've fouled out in the first half with the "defense" he was playing on the former MVP. That's just the way the game plays out however, and he was smart enough to recognize the advantage he had as a smaller player, a strength in itself.

The Thunder were 2-0 against the Pacers in the regular season, with an especially dominant win in March where they handled Indiana by double-digits while missing Homgren and Hartenstein left early in the game. This came in the middle of a Pacers' hot streak as well, a concerning fact that the Pacers need to address. In defense of Indiana, this was a Thunder team that thrived at home all season, and the Pacers were in clear regular-season mode at this time. Still, this shouldn't be seen as a throwaway game for either side. Granted, matchups will be completely different with both Thunder big men being slotted in the lineup and a not-so advantageous matchup for Hartenstein. The first matchup between the squads featured a 6-point Thunder victory in Indiana, near the end of the Pacers' rough start to the season, and when it was clear the Thunder were going to enter the playoffs as potential title favorites. Two sides can be seen from an atrocious Haliburton performance, glass half-full that the Pacers remained competitive even without their all-NBA talent being a factor, and glass half-empty that Tyrese was in prison against an incredible Thunder defense. Haliburton did finish their second matchup with 18 points on decent enough shooting, but the lopsided loss combined for an odd combination.

A Chance at History

The play on the court is the primary focus for this year's Finals. You can make the argument that this is the first true small-market NBA Finals since the turn of the millennium, unless you want to count the 2021 Phoenix vs Milwaukee Finals. The NBA isn't going to be able to rely on a market like Los Angeles or Miami to do the heavy lifting, they're going to rely on two incredibly talented basketball teams led by two players with a chance to be the future face of the league in these coming years.

Both franchises are historic in their unusual ways. The Pacers were a pristegous ABA franchise who have been in the great but not quite elite tier of teams since their introduction to the NBA who have used a foreign concept of team building for the modern NBA that far more relied on smart drafting and especially trading to organically build a brand of team basketball that focuses on sharing the basketball at an elite level. The Thunder are a franchise whose blacklist from their former home in Seattle has seen the rise of one of the most explosive and loud fanbases in all of sports. The franchise has seen elite team building since they rebranded in 2007 and has featured four different MVPs since then but have never quite gotten over the hump. They will be entering their second Finals in franchise history, just as the Pacers, and have done so in an eerily similar fashion.

These Finals will feature two teams that don't have the pleasure of a major media market or a stacked celebrity row on a game-by-game basis, but rather two states who love the game to its core and have rabid fans who share the same enthusiasm as the players. If we're all lucky, this Finals will be an insight for other players and executives surrouding the game that there are reasons to shine light on organizations that are not only discussed because what celebirty attended the game, or what superstar signed a max contract there so they can enter the media half of their career. This NBA Finals has a chance to change everything for the better, and you best believe we're going to get elite basketball to go with it.

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