I'm Done Trying to Understand Trades in the NBA

The first "blockbuster" of this rumored massive NBA offseason just went down before we have even entered the true offseason. The Memphis Grizzlies will send Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, the 16th pick in this upcoming (and pretty good) NBA draft, and *checks notes*, four additional unprotected first-round picks, including a 2026 first from Phoenix? What?

There's a great deal to unpack here, but this isn't just a piece-by-piece grading practice between both teams; this is more of an analysis on what in the world NBA trades have turned into. It seems that ever since MyLeague (now MyNBA but MyLeague and the Association will live forever) in NBA 2K became the game mode of choice for many aspiring general managers, picks have become much more of a forefront in us common peon's minds as well as up front NBA executives in general. Don't believe me? Look at the Kevin Garnett to the Celtics trade in 2007 that sent the Timberwolves hall of famer to Boston for a massive haul of players, yet only two first-round picks. What about Shaquille O' Neal to Miami in 2004? A handful of players and only a single first-round pick. Now, look at recent trades still in many minds, like when the Knicks sent over a solid rotation piece in Bojan Bogdanovic and five first-round picks for Mikal Bridges by himself. The ever-present Bradley Beal trade to the Suns featured an unbelievable 12 picks exchanged, including 10 (!!!) different picks sent to the Wizards by themselves, essentially mortgaging the entire Suns' future, who sent the bulk of the picks in the deal.

This is so odd and confusing because picks have never felt so valuable yet so worthless all at once. Teams are willing to send their franchise cornerstones and mortgage their future on hypothetical players that could be in middle school at the time of the trade, and teams are also willing to throw in as many picks as possible for a player that may raise a team's ceiling one tick at most. And look, I'm not ignorant of the situation, and this isn't just an Orlando hate piece. I am well aware that the instant reaction to this trade from stay-at-home general managers was that the Magic got incredibly fleeced based on the headline. And, look, it was a lot, but these overhauls of picks are never as bad as they seem on paper. The majority of the time, these first-round picks that are so casually thrown into deals wind up being worth next to nothing in the long run and it isn't the end of the world when team's end up losing their picks that end up in the mid 20s and early second round half a decade after a trade. I'm quite appreciative of a team that is so willing to go in on a team they truly believe can be a championship contender, which I feel like the Magic have done. This looming free agency has big pieces in it, but Orlando isn't necessarily the destination, nor have many options under the salary cap to go after anything major without getting a deal done like this. I'll get more into my specific thoughts on each side's haul soon, but I'll mention now that I get it on both ends.

How Much of This is Due to the Upcoming CBA?

It feels like we're in an odd middle ground when it comes to the value of assets in the NBA. I already mentioned how it feels like picks are more meaningful yet more worthless all at the same time, but this goes all the way down to the basis of this upcoming CBA (collective bargaining agreement). To sum it up in incredibly simple terms, this upcoming CBA is going to make it incredibly difficult for well-built teams to keep their cores together based on how much going over this imposed luxury tax will impact teams in the long run. Take, for example, what the Celtics are going through right now. Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Kristaps Porzingis are all incredibly hot commodities on the trade market this offseason because it seems like the Celtics are bracing for the repercussions of the luxury tax if they were to pay for this current iteration of the team. This is incredibly disheartening, as this was a brilliantly built team that displayed championship-level results, all being torn down because of how this new CBA will be structured. A few of the punishments for going over this luxury tax (or second-apron as it has also been commonly referred to) are the loss of the mid-level exception, loss of the ability to sign-and-trade, cannot access the buyout market, and many other restrictions. In a perfect world, this wouldn't matter to teams who can contend, as they could continuously run it back every year without worrying how these factors being taken away would affect the team in the long run, but that isn't how these franchises work. They are a business run by billionaires who, at the end of the day, are there to make as much money as possible. That objective is completed by making the correct financial decisions, not basketball decisions.

The primary reason I consider this a factor in the ever-present constant picks being exchanged on this current iteration of the NBA trade market is that teams realize this may be their last chance to value these picks for what they could be worth. The Thunder, a team on the brink of their first NBA championship, built their team through excellent drafting over the previous few years. Like the Celtics, they'll be pressured into making the very difficult decision in the upcoming years of what to do with the roster they've built. They have too many assets, as the Celtics do as well. It feels like these teams are sending away all these picks because they're already preparing to have too much and feel like getting rid of them before they materialize is the best decision, even if it's not the highest ceiling raiser. It's what also makes it so confusing for teams that are on the receiving end of all these picks. Is the NBA now just a never-ending cycle of teams sending away picks because they're scared to have too many assets? That's certainly what it feels like.

The Magic Recognizes the Moment

Here's a quick recap of the trade for each side:

• Magic receive:
  • Desmond Bane
• Grizzlies receive:
  • Cole Anthony, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, the Magic's 16th overall pick in this year's draft, and *checks notes again* four additional first-round picks (again, including a 2026 first-rounder from Phoenix)

Here's the bottom line: The Magic think they can contend in the East next year. While there are current talks about a player like Kevin Durant going out East, and trade talks for Giannis Antetokounmpo dying down, the East is still wide open for any team next season. You'd expect the Cavaliers to be the favorites to claim the conference entering next season, but that roster seems to be on the verge of a shakeup, including Darius Garland being moved, so that team is as much of a question mark as they seemed falling in the second round of the playoffs this season. Jayson Tatum is out next season, almost surely eliminating the Celtics from contention. The Pacers are the team representing the East in the NBA Finals right now, but have shown they have vulnerabilities that can be taken advantage of, and a looming Myles Turner free agency may be worrisome. Then the Knicks are dangerously close to shaking up the roster after just one season with Karl Anthony-Towns. The point is, the East is incredibly wide open, and the Magic recognize that. Adding Desmond Bane is a net positive, as he's a solid wing whose shooting and off-ball movement should complement Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner's ball dominance quite well, as he doesn't need the ball to be effective.

The headlines being made about what was given away aren't all that's bad when broken down. The firsts being exchanged is so normal at this point that it wasn't even the first move to catch my eye, it was the involvement of guard Cole Anthony, who I thought was a legitimate piece that the Magic may have utilized. It's majorly clear the Magic have now planted their flag in fellow guard Anthony Black, who matches Anthony in athleticism but is a few ticks under Anthony in the shooting department. Crazy times we're in, as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who was seen as a major addition for the Magic in last year's free agency, is essentially a throw-in to this deal. Caldwell-Pope suffered a major dropoff last year compared to his tenure as a Denver Nugget, where he was a key piece in that 2023 championship run. The highlight, of course, was the head-turning four first-round picks, including this year's first and a first from Phoenix in next year's 2026 class. This is a solid enough draft class with some depth around that 16 spot, but it isn't the end of the world for Orlando. But that 2026 pick, that could be rough. Phoenix is on the verge of completely collapsing, as Durant is guaranteed to be moved this offseason. This Phoenix team was outside of the play-in with Durant alongside Booker. Barring a win-now return for Phoenix (which should be the goal, considering they don't have any of their first-round picks), that pick is looking to be mightily valuable next year.

The Grizzlies Are Doing What Exactly?

The answer: I have zero idea. Frankly, my gut instinct was that this was the first domino to fall for a full-on rebuild. While I believe in the talent of cornerstone Ja Morant, it's impossible to deny that at this point, he's at the bottom of the list of players you'd want to build your franchise around. He's had his issues off the court previously, but the main concern now is his health. He's never played more than 70 games in a season, and this season he just cracked the 50 mark. Moving on from the young star has been bumbling for a while now. The problem is that his value is at an all-time low.

But, just looking at the trade at face value and ignoring the possibility of a complete rebuild, the trade brings in solid pieces that I wouldn't say quite equate to what Bane provided on a night-to-night basis. This is something the Grizzlies recognized, as Bane just completed the first year of a 5-year extension he signed with the Grizzlies worth up to $200,000,000. The return does add needed depth to a Grizzlies roster that looks much better on paper than it does in practice, but I wouldn't say bad guard play was the reason for the Grizzlies' end-of-season struggles. Adding more space around Morant and Zach Edey should prove dividends, but by how much I'm not entirely sure. If Caldwell-Pope can show glimpses of what he did back in Denver, the Grizzlies should be able to make something work, but it is a tough Western Conference.

The only other possible option I can gather is that the Grizzlies are gathering these assets to package for one final deal for another complementary star around Morant and all-star forward Jaren Jackson Jr, but I can't see them getting an option as good as Bane.

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